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Larry Halverson: I've Been Thinking

Larry Halverson, CFA, Managing Director of MEMBERS Capital Advisors, Inc., is a veteran of more than 35 years in the financial services industry.

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Friday, June 22, 2007

And, they’re off! Already.

We’re going to really be sick of the Presidential horse race well before it’s over. But, so far, I have to admit, it’s been somewhat amusing.

The Dems saw Clinton take the lead right out of the gate. But, then Obama moved up fast and, depending on the viewing angle, may have nosed ahead. But, Clinton then surged back into the lead, in spite of boos and catcalls from some in the far left end of the grandstand who were even louder than her usual right-side detractors.

Republicans have suffered even more bumping and grinding with Thompson and Guiliani now neck and neck up front while Romney and McCain are fighting it out side by side a few lengths back.

And, posturing to enter the race midway through is Bloomberg, who spent most of his life a distinctly blue shade, transformed himself to red a few years ago, and just this week shed all identifying colors.

(Go to http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics for regular updates on the progress of each of the contenders.)

These recurring contests of strength, style and stamina have always caused concern if not consternation among those who follow the sport, especially those of us who see great significance in the outcome. After experiencing what the last two winners did, however, I’m not sure it’s worth the anguish. They did what Bloomberg has done, but covertly. They changed colors, or at least shades, as they served out their terms as champions.

I’m noticing one thing that’s different this time, though. Me. I’ll be retired for a good part of their term. My priorities are changing and I’ll be less able to change my lifestyle in response to new taxing and spending priorities. The wave of baby boomers on my heels will be having similar thoughts.

I wonder how this will change the political landscape. Will this largest of generations (so far) that benefited so much from the strong private sector they will soon be leaving now begin to look more to the public sector for its care and feeding, and vote accordingly? Or, will the typical age-related transition to more conservative views lead them to prefer even less government in their lives than they have had? Either way, most of us will root for whoever we see as most likely to provide the optimum social and financial environment nationwide, and geopolitical environment worldwide, that doesn’t leave us – the soon to be retired – any worse off.

But, who will do that? No way to know for sure. And, each of us wants something a little different. That’s what makes it a horse race.

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