What, you couldn’t live without me!?

I go on vacation for two weeks, investors panic, and the market plummets. I get back (today) and stocks surge.

I have no more two-week vacations planned. Is this, then, the beginning of the market’s recovery and we’re back on our way to new highs?

Doubtful. Regardless of my vacation plans, the process of unwinding our nation’s excesses will take longer. But, it shouldn’t go a whole lot deeper – to the point of a serious recession and a 2000-like stock market swoon.

Why not? Because the U. S. is no longer the dominant engine of the world economy. It is still the most powerful (for now), but it no longer leads the economic parade. It is now supplemented by many other smaller and faster economic engines, nearly all of which are currently cruising along with relatively little baggage in the form of excess debt like we have in our housing and investment arenas. So, as our economic engine loses power and falls back, it can “draft” (as in NASCAR) the economies of the rest of the world. This should keep us from falling into recession as the excesses unwind.

But, we can’t be sure. Investors’ still have a lot to worry about, especially if the unwinding proves to be messier-than-expected. So, investors may not feel comfortable for some time yet. Even if I never take another day of vacation.